By Dave Workman
About the same time the New York Times was reporting how wrong primary polling in Michigan and Wisconsin turned out, a national polling firm was publishing results of its own survey, which revealed only 28 percent of likely U.S. voters say they trust most political polls.
The irony is impossible to ignore.
The NYTimes puts it bluntly: “Progressives thought they would clobber the moderates in primaries this month. The polls had set extraordinarily high expectations: a double-digit lead for Dr. Abdul El-Sayed in the Michigan Senate contest and more than 20 points for Francesca Hong in Wisconsin’s primary for governor.
“Instead, El-Sayed won by one point, and Hong lost,” writes Times chief political analyst Nate Cohn.
Almost simultaneously, Rasmussen Reports was noting, “Fifty percent (50%) don’t trust most polls, and 23% are not sure.”
“Results like the recent Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary – where polls missed the final result by double-digit margins – have underscored public doubts about the polling industry,” says Rasmussen. “Only 14% believe the current polling on political issues and events is better than it has been in the past. Thirty-nine percent (39%) think political polling has gotten worse, while 41% say it’s about the same as it was in the past.
The survey of 1,107 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted Aug. 5-6 and 9 by Rasmussen Reports with a margin of sampling error at +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
The Times report acknowledges, “Primary elections have always been hard for pollsters. They’re uncertain and volatile contests. The turnout is low and voter preferences can switch on a dime.”
Still, as Cohn observes, “Even so, it is pretty unusual for polls to badly overestimate the same political faction twice in two weeks.”
Rasmussen’s survey—which is, admittedly, a political poll—had some interesting revelations.
- Thirty-six percent (36%) think the average pollster is more liberal than they are, while 27% believe pollsters are more conservative. Twenty percent (20%) say most pollsters are about the same as them ideologically, and 17% are not sure.
- A majority (54%) of Republicans believe most pollsters are trying to block the president from passing his agenda, a belief shared by 27% of Democrats and 30% of voters not affiliated with either major party.
- Forty-one percent of Democrats, 40 percent of Republicans and 37 percent of Independents s”ay the current polling on political issues and events is worse than it has been in the past.”
- Fifty-two percent of Republicans, 26 percent of Democrats and 31 percent of Independents think the average pollster is more liberal than they are, while 34 percent of Democrats, 25 percent of Republicans and 20 percent Independents think pollsters are more conservative.
- Fifty-eight percent of Republicans, 40 percent of Democrats and 51 percent of Independents “don’t trust most political polls.”
Still, political polling will increasingly dominate the news as the midterm elections loom in November.
But in the final analysis, the only poll which will really count is the November election, the results of which will be affected by voter turnout and, in states such as Democrat-dominated Washington, Oregon and California, a rising incidence of voter apathy, especially among conservatives, hunters and gun owners who have become convinced, however erroneously, that their votes “don’t count.”
Workman is editor-in-chief at TheGunMag.com
