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Rasmussen: Majority of Likely Voters Will Cast Ballots Early

October 10, 2026 By Dave Workman

Conservative and Second Amendment activists in Washington state are spreading this message all over social media as the Nov. 3 midterm elections loom. 

By Dave Workman

A startling new survey by Rasmussen, released this week, has revealed only 34 percent of likely voters will wait until Nov. 3 to actually submit their ballots, while 38 percent will “take advantage of early in-person voting, while 25% say they’ll vote by mail.”

Second Amendment activists should pay attention to this because in many states, and in congressional races, the future of gun rights could take an ugly turn if anti-gun “progressive” Democrats take control of Capitol Hill. In such a flip of power, some insiders quietly suggest, two things will happen:

  • Impeachment proceedings against President Donald Trump will likely unfold fast
  • The Democrat majority will launch efforts against gun rights, possibly attacking the Justice Department’s Second Amendment Section and the leadership and direction of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives.

According to Rasmussen, “Nine states (California, Maine, Montana, Nebraska, Indiana, New Mexico, Ohio, Wyoming and Arizona) began early voting this week. Majorities of voters in every political category – 68% of Democrats, 56% of Republicans and 64% of those not affiliated with either major party – plan to vote early this year, either by mail or in person.”
Historically, gun owners and hunters have been among the most lethargic, if not downright apathetic, about participating in the midterm elections.

This is perhaps best illustrated by efforts among state-level Second Amendment activists to get out the vote. In Washington state, for example, this message has been shared all over various Facebook forums: “1.7 Million Registered Washingtonians Did Not Vote Last Midterm. The Republic Does Not Run on Spectators.”

And here’s an alarming revelation: “Thirty-four percent (34%) of all Likely Voters say their vote in the November midterm election will be to support President Donald Trump’s agenda, while 51% will vote to oppose the president’s agenda, and 11% say their vote will not have much to do with Trump’s agenda either way.”

Boiled down to party affiliation, here’s how Rasmussen’s survey sees the election participation:

“Seventy-six percent (76%) of Democrats say their vote will be to oppose Trump’s agenda,” Rasmussen discovered, “while 62% of Republicans will vote to support Trump’s agenda. Among unaffiliated voters (Independents), 53% will vote to oppose Trump’s agenda, 29% will vote to support Trump’s agenda, and 15% say their vote will not have much to do with Trump’s agenda either way.”

Something else Rasmussen’s polling found: “Sixty-five percent (65%) are concerned that the outcome of this year’s congressional elections will be affected by cheating, including 36% who are Very Concerned. Thirty-one percent (31%) aren’t concerned about election cheating this year, including 12% who are Not At All Concerned. Those who are Very Concerned about cheating are less likely to say they’ll vote by mail.

“Sixty-seven percent (67%) of Republicans, 65% of Democrats and 62% of unaffiliated voters are at least somewhat concerned that the outcome of this year’s congressional elections will be affected by cheating.”

Mark Smith, Four Boxes Diner

All of this adds gravity to a message from attorney and Second Amendment expert Mark Smith, host of the “Four Boxes Diner” YouTube channel delivered at the recent Gun Rights Policy Conference in Dallas, Texas.

“Never forget,” Smith stressed, “that without President Trump being elected, without the Republicans being elected to Congress, there (would be) no Justice Barrett, Justice Gorsuch, Justice Kavanaugh; they (wouldn’t) exist.”

He went on to note that without Trump in the White House and GOP control of Congress, there would have been no One, Big, Beautiful Bill to knock out the $20 tax on NFA-regulated firearms and suppressors.

“The point is,” Smith said, “elections matter, and you see this in real time, because without Republicans in the Senate, you don’t have Harmeet Dhillon confirmed, you don’t have Todd Blanche confirmed, you don’t have (Solicitor General) John Sauer confirmed.

“So for those of you who say Donald Trump is not perfect, well, no one’s perfect, right,” he challenged. “But Donald Trump and his team have delivered wins for the Second Amendment like we’ve never seen, including the judges he put on the Supreme Court and judges on the lower courts.”

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About Dave Workman

Dave Workman is an award-winning career journalist with an expertise in firearms and the outdoors. He is the author of several books dealing with firearms politics. He has a degree in editorial journalism from the University of Washington and is a lifelong Washington resident.

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