RealClear Investigations is reporting that when the FBI published crime data for 2022, showing a 2.1 percent drop in violent crime, it apparently fudged the numbers and the agency has “quietly revised” the data to reflect an actual 4.5 percent increase during that year.
The revelation comes from John Lott in a 1,450-word report detailing the disparity between the original data—which Lott notes has become a “Democrat Party talking point to counter Donald Trump’s claims of soaring crime”—and the new numbers, which the FBI has allegedly downplayed. Indeed, according to Lott, the FBI made no mention of the revisions in its September 2024 press release announcing the 2023 crime numbers. The bureau annually releases crime data for the previous year in late September.
TGM reached out to Lott, but he did not immediately respond.
However, Fox News Digital quoted the veteran researcher, who stated, “For some reason, the media, they did pick the crime data that they think goes and makes the Democrats look as good as possible. And then even when the crime data that they’ve relied on turns out by the very source of that data to be wrong, none of them fix it.”
Such observations further reinforce the notion that the media has been covering for the Biden-Harris administration for the past three years.
According to Lott’s article, the actual changes in crime data “are extensive.”
“The updated data for 2022 report that there were 80,029 more violent crimes than in 2021,” Lott wrote. “There were an additional 1,699 murders, 7,780 rapes, 33,459 robberies, and 37,091 aggravated assaults. The question naturally arises: should the FBI’s 2023 numbers be believed?”
Could it be that part of the problem stems from the FBI’s switchover in 2020 from the traditional Uniform Crime Report platform—a user-friendly online resource which made it easy for the public and journalists to find estimated data on the numbers of murders in each state, the types of weapons used, plus the number of self-defense fatal shootings by police and by private citizens—to the user-unfriendly National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS).
Lott notes the FBI isn’t the only agency which had to change its data under the Biden-Harris administration.
“The Bureau of Labor Statistics massively overestimated the number of jobs created during the year that ended in March by 818,000 people,” he recalled.
Lott also said data from the 2023 National Crime Victimization Survey “tell a very different story from the FBI data.” The New York Post revealed the data back in mid-September following the debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, when ABC News moderator David Muir attempt to fact-check Trump on live television after the former president asserted “crime in this country is through the roof.”
According to the NCVS numbers, total violent crime has risen by 55.4%, including a 42 percent spike in rape, a 63 percent jump in robbery and 55 percent rise in aggravated assault during the Biden-Harris term, which began in January 2021, Lott reported.
In response to Lott’s report, Fox News Digital quoted Trump campaign spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt, who remarked, “The federal government lied about Biden’s cognitive decline, lied about the job numbers, and now we learn they lied about crime numbers too. Kamala Harris must admit she’s wrong and address how she plans to bring down the rising crime crisis. Every mainstream media reporter who was quick to correct President Trump must cover this new revelation if they have any shred of integrity left.”
Lott’s revelations raise legitimate questions about the FBI data for 2023, which once again shows a drop in violent crime by an estimated 3 percent.
According to a Sept. 23 FBI news release, “The FBI’s crime statistics estimates, based on reported data for 2023, show that national violent crime decreased an estimated 3.0% in 2023 compared to 2022 estimates:
- Murder and non-negligent manslaughter recorded a 2023 estimated nationwide decrease of 11.6% compared to the previous year.
- In 2023, the estimated number of offenses in the revised rape category saw an estimated 9.4% decrease.
- Aggravated assault figures decreased an estimated 2.8% in 2023.
- Robbery showed an estimated decrease of 0.3% nationally.
“In 2023,” the FBI said, “16,009 agencies participated in the hate crime collection, with a population coverage of 95.2%. Law enforcement agencies submitted incident reports involving 11,862 criminal incidents and 13,829 related offenses as being motivated by bias toward race, ethnicity, ancestry, religion, sexual orientation, disability, gender, and gender identity.”
But can the numbers be believed? Based on Lott’s report, probably not.
